Most shipping pros know about peak holiday shipping and produce season – because they’ve felt the impact of the higher rates and scarce capacity they can create. Preparing and knowing what to expect are annual events on the logistics calendar. But less appreciated are other, more seasonal trends that can be just as impactful.
These events are continually moving rates and impacting capacity in ways many shippers do not even realize. Freight rates don’t move randomly—they’re often tied to the seasons. From regional harvests to national shopping events, certain times of year consistently impact demand for truckload capacity and logistics budgets.
This article highlights six seasonality patterns observed through regional rate data. Shippers can use this guide to identify and better prepare for how your costs and carrier availability can be impacted throughout the year.
Potatoes are the third most popular crop grown in the US, so it is obvious how their growing season can impact the freight market at a specific time each year. Each summer, states from the Midwest see a spike in outbound truckload rates as the potato harvest ramps up, creating short-term surges in demand for reefer capacity.
In contrast to the traditional produce season that sees big spikes in volume from the border states and Florida, the potato harvest season typically runs from mid-summer to late fall, with the exact timing varying based on potato variety and planting time. The top producing states include Idaho, Washington, Wisconsin, Oregon, North Dakota, Michigan, and Colorado. Reefer vans are most in demand, but dry van capacity is also affected.
As temperatures drop in the Northeast, so does carrier availability, as wood pellet shipments for home heating ramp up and take priority for the region’s carriers. While not the leading pellet production region of the US (more on that below), the data shows that market demand still drives meaningful changes to shipping costs and truckload capacity in states including Pennsylvania, New York, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont.
As far as the impacts of pellet production itself, most occur in the southeastern US. Most wood pellets are exported. The areas of Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina see a lot of shipping volume heading to ports in the Gulf and the Southeastern US.
From July through early September, back-to-school retail replenishment drives volume increases across the country. The flow of trucks largely flows towards the largest US population centers and, since most clothes and school supplies are imported, moves from the major US ports on the West and East Coast.
The growing trends of “fast fashion” and e-commerce have reshaped this particular part of the supply chain in the past ten years. More direct-to-consumer (DTC) shipping has reduced retailers’ reliance on truckload as a percentage of product shipped, but there is still a profound national impact during this time.
A great example of a smaller, localized seasonal trend happens in Texas each year. They say everything is bigger in Texas, and that includes how the demand for beer impacts shipping costs in the spring and early summer. During this time, distributors gear up for warm-weather consumption and holiday weekends. Much of the impact on trucking rates and capacity is felt along the border and Gulf Coast.
Obviously, there are beer drinkers all around the country. But data shows the impact in this region tends to be exaggerated in some areas compared to other states.
Truck drivers perform an important service to our country and deserve recognition for that. Observed each September, Driver Appreciation Week can create fluctuations in rates as companies adjust schedules or temporarily reduce fleet availability. During this time, rates can increase due to more limited capacity.
Another important national industry event is Truck Safety Awareness Week, which takes place in May each year. During this time, carriers may take extra time for equipment maintenance, which can also limit trucks on the road temporarily.
A more recent phenomenon, but indicative of how the logistics market is changing, is Amazon Prime Day. This major e-commerce event, typically in mid-July, causes a pre- and post-spike in truckload demand, especially around the retailer’s fulfillment centers and middle-mile hubs. As other retailers and brands look to compete with Amazon, it has impacted retailer shipping patterns in many of the same ways as peak holiday season.
Like Back to School, the impacts of Amazon Prime Day are really just a lead up to the holidays. No experienced logistics professionals need any explanation of what happens to the industry that time of year!
Freight rates don’t fluctuate at random—they often follow seasonal cycles that are always in effect. It’s often the more localized seasonal trends that shape the logistics market. These regional patterns, visible in the data, can quietly influence rates and capacity without many shippers realizing it.
Preparing for these surges needs to be a routine part of every company’s logistics calendar. Want help staying ahead of the curve?
Contact Loadsmart to learn about our Brokerage and 4PL services and see how your company can withstand supply chain volatility as our partner.