Loadsmart’s Look Ahead: An Analysis of Key Freight & Economic Indicators to Watch in May 2025

As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market. 

Full Truckload Market Overview 

Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast

Spot rates have likely bottomed out in April, falling 9% MoM (vs. our forecast of -7%). Our model now forecasts a 3% MoM rate increase in May - the first increase after three consecutive declines - driven by:

• Produce season tailwind. USDA’s April Vegetables & Pulses Outlook suggests spot demand will track last year and still trigger the familiar, short-lived regional squeezes as harvests move north in Q2. Although Florida's citrus crop is projected to be smaller this year, booming berry, melon, and onion crops will tighten truck capacity in California, Arizona, and Georgia in the coming months.
• Demand Pulse. Strong payroll gains in April point to steady consumer spending in May. In addition, the NRF's Mother's Day survey indicates that holiday spending should be up 1.8% year-over-year.

There will be a short-term lift but a longer-term drag: even though rates may improve on a MoM basis, our model still indicates YoY contraction. With no industrial recovery and consumer-goods demand slowing, the fundamentals point to spot rates averaging about 6.5 % lower YoY through the remainder of 2025 (May to Dec).