As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to show a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
We hope you enjoy! #movemorewithless
DRV spot rose 3.7% MoM, undershooting our 6% call as post‑holiday momentum and produce tailwinds faded. Our model now forecasts a 2.6% MoM rate change in August, followed by a late-summer/early-fall plateau. The next notable tightness will come in the 1Q2026 driven by weather-related events.
Although rates will stay somewhat stable MoM, our model still indicates a YoY contraction for the rest of 2025. In our analysis, the July 4th week bump (Jun 29–Jul 6) was ~7% lower YoY, consistent with weaker consumption and restrained stock replenishment. We therefore expect August back‑to‑school pull on freight demand to be slower than last year. For the next quarters, expect:
Our 2Q DRV rates benefited from stronger-than-anticipated consumption in 1H2025. But we do not expect this high consumption scenario to persist, as tariffs will impose higher prices on the consumer.
We project port congestion and the backlog of pre-tariff shipments to be clear by late August or early September. Given the typical 2–4 week lag between port activity and domestic truckload movements, we anticipate a weakening of demand in near-port lanes—particularly Southern California and interior/Gulf regions - by early 4Q.
Looking into 1Q2026, we anticipate weather, rather than fundamentals, to drive the next monthly rate increase. The NOAA CPC’s December–February outlook highlights colder and wetter than average conditions across the northern tier of the U.S., which we use as an input assumption for higher weather-related disruptions in January 2026.