As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update and analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
We hope you enjoy! #movemorewithless
DRV spot rates jumped 29.4% MoM in December, far surpassing our +3.2% prediction. We now project a 5.3% decrease in January 2026.
December’s spike driven by a year-end capacity squeeze. Fewer workdays raised freight urgency. Weather and driver time-off pulled trucks out of major US corridors. The Logistics Managers’ Index recorded that transportation capacity has contracted for the first time since March of 2022 which was the start of the previous long freight recession.
On the demand side we note that volumes were lower than last year as much of the freight was pulled forward into earlier months ahead of tariff changes, limiting incremental December demand.
However, we do not expect the December rate spike to last, as seasonal demand is cooling after the holidays.