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As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s Top 30 Spot Rate Forecast
Our rate index for the top 30 dry-van markets rose 8% MoM—2 p.p. higher than LS's expectation of 6% MoM, driven by produce season surges and the Independence Day shipping rush. Our model now projects an additional 10% MoM increase in July before momentum cools in August.
- Looking ahead, our model suggests that spot rates may continue to increase slightly through July and August until produce season ends and the effects of the tariff pull-forward run their course. Nevertheless, rates are expected to stabilize in August. YoY growth will plateau due to the temporary nature of current price drivers and will only rise again during the holiday season.
- Produce flows will continue to cause regional capacity-demand imbalances. July and August should still see some regional capacity-demand imbalances driven by produce. Pockets of tigheteness will remain in SoCal through July, then ease in August as California's produce season ends and the total tonnage of produce drops MoM. At that time, milder capacity pressures will emerge in the Northwest.
- Meanwhile, the tariff pull-forward is losing steam as the temporary tariff relief is set to end by Aug 1. According to Sea-Intelligence’s July update, shipping lines quickly pulled back the extra vessels they added to the Asia–West Coast route in June as new container bookings started drying up in July. This suggests an imminent dip in import volumes in the 3Q -and, in turn, less freight moving inland in September and October.
- Beyond the temporary tariff-driven surge, underlying freight demand will remain soft as shippers plan to follow a cautious inventory strategy in the 3Q. According to Morgan Stanley’s latest Freight Pulse from Jul 14, shippers are not planning to increase inventories in the next months—a rather counter-seasonal behavior, as June and July are typically months when inventories climb ahead of the back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons. For now, they’re staying on hold until tariff policy and consumer spending trends become clearer.
