---
title: "Loadsmart’s Look Ahead: An Analysis of Key Freight & Economic Indicators to Watch in September"
description: In this Monthly Market Update, we will provide a brief update & analysis of the full truckload market and present some compelling trucking-related economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the market. 
image: https://blog.loadsmart.com/hubfs/septmeber%20monhtly.png
---

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# Loadsmart’s Look Ahead: An Analysis of Key Freight & Economic Indicators to Watch in September

 by [**jpallmerine**](https://blog.loadsmart.com/author/jpallmerine)

As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will provide a brief update & analysis of the full truckload market and present some compelling trucking-related economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the market. 

Please reach out to [Stella Carneiro](mailto:stella.carneiro@loadsmart.com) ([stella.carneiro@loadsmart.com](mailto:stella.carneiro@loadsmart.com)) or [Jon Payne](mailto:jonathan.payne@loadsmart.com) ([jonathan.payne@loadsmart.com](mailto:jonathan.payne@loadsmart.com)) with any questions, suggestions, thoughts, etc. Thank you! We hope you enjoy! #movemorewithless

![230404-Banner-Look-Ahead-02MG](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/230404-Banner-Look-Ahead-02MG.png?width=600&height=60&name=230404-Banner-Look-Ahead-02MG.png)

As of September 1, 2023, our model correctly predicted that rates would increase in August, though they increased by $0.04 more than we predicted. 

By the end of 2023, our forecast calls for prices to rise to $2.56 (an 8.9% increase from July's low) and continue on an upward trajectory through 2024.

**![LS rate forecast as of September 2023](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/ls-rate-forecast-sept-23.png?width=672&height=414&name=ls-rate-forecast-sept-23.png)**

*Figure 1*

#### **August's Full Truckload Market Review:**

**![Loadsmart's Carrier Rate vs Volume - Daily Indices](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/ls-carrier-rate-vol-daily.png?width=672&height=395&name=ls-carrier-rate-vol-daily.png)**

*Figure 2*

**Rates:** Our price index increased by 3.1% MoM in August, up 25% from May’s/June’s bottom. However, this increase from the bottom is estimated to be closer to +15% if you account for the fact that diesel prices rose by +$0.40 in August.

- - On a YoY basis (as seen in Figure 3 below), our spot rate index is now only -3.5% YoY, which is the lowest this gap has been since Q1’22. This further supports signs that we are slowly but surely transitioning into an inflationary cycle.

**Volumes:** Our volume index decreased by 3.3% MoM in August. Sonar's OTVI rose ~3% over the same period, but Loadsmart has yet to see the reported increase in freight demand, either in quotes or allocated volumes.

![Loadsmart's Carrier Rate vs Volume - Daily Indices splited](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/ls-carrier-rate-vol-index.png?width=672&height=640&name=ls-carrier-rate-vol-index.png)

*Figure 2*

**Freight & Economics**

**Spot and Contract Rates Converged**

 The slight recovery in the spot market paired with 7 quarters straight of contract rate reductions have finally brought the two together. Current Loadsmart data, which is not a perfect representation for the rest of the industry which likely has more of a lag, suggests that average spot rates just crossed above the contracts ones for the first time since Q1’22 - as shown in Figure 4.

- The difference between the rates in the two markets is minimal for now, but it comes at a key time for negotiations in the contract market as peak RFP season (Q4/Q1) is approaching rapidly.

**![Loadsmart's contract to spot gap](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/ls-contract-spot-gap.png?width=655&height=451&name=ls-contract-spot-gap.png)**

*Figure 4*

 Typically contract rates lag spot rates by about 6 months, but because the spot rate increases have been so minimal, we don’t anticipate material contract rate increases until Q2’24 at the earliest.

**Retail sales**

Real retail sales rose 0.5% MoM in July, and August data should show further gains once it is available - Figure 5. According to the National Retail Federation, "consumers are expected to spend record amounts on both back-to-school and back-to-college shopping this year," boosting sales for another month.

August typically sees a MoM inch up in sales due to back-to-school and end-of-summer sales. It is also the start of the peak season for the freight industry.

**![Real retail and food services sales are improving, but still not growing Y/Y since Feb 2023](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/real-reatail-food-sales.png?width=672&height=275&name=real-reatail-food-sales.png)**

*Figure 5*

The monthly increases in retail sales since March have so far not been enough to push the year-on-year growth rate above zero. Freight volumes are also still at a low level compared to last year (Loadsmart volumes are down 18% YoY and Sonar OTVI volumes are down 10% YoY).

A strong back-to-school season can be a sign of a better holiday season to come. If it is confirmed to be stronger than last year, it may indicate that we have a better holiday season ahead.

![Icon-Round-41](https://blog.loadsmart.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Icons-Loadsmart/Round/Icon-Round-41.png?width=189&height=189&name=Icon-Round-41.png)

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