Cargo Theft is Evolving, and Getting Smarter

Cargo theft has been climbing sharply in recent years, reshaping how the logistics industry must think about risk and security. To help shippers, carriers, and warehouses better understand the threat, we are launching this two-part blog series. In this first piece, we’ll look at what’s happening in cargo theft today, the new methods driving losses, and why the impact goes way beyond a stolen load.

Theft is on the Rise

Cargo theft has seen a 140% increase from the average in 2019-2021 to the average in 2024-2025. Not only have cargo theft cases increased, but the methods have also drastically evolved.

Data from Verisk CargoNet (US+Canada), plot by Author. 

Despite traditional cargo theft still representing the most common theft events, the largest contributing factor to this rise can be attributed to strategic cargo theft. It has increased from 8% in 2020 to over 33% of cargo theft events in 2024. That’s an over tenfold increase in absolute terms in only four years.

Strategic Theft, Fraud Over Force

Unlike traditional theft, which relies on force or access to unattended vehicles, strategic theft relies on deception, impersonation, and digital tools. Criminals are manipulating paperwork, forging identities, and inserting themselves into the flow of business operations.

Below is a table comparing traditional to strategic cargo theft. 

Why Strategic Theft has Grown

We suggest that the increase in strategic theft during these years is a combination of two key factors 

1. Digitalization

The pandemic accelerated the digital transformation of supply chains. Phone calls, load boards, and Zoom meetings often replaced face-to-face relationships. While this shift has brought efficiency, it has also created more opportunities for bad actors to hide behind remote communication and impersonation.

2. New Technologies

The breakthrough of Generative AI has made it easier to forge documents, fake identities, and impersonate individuals or companies. Fraudsters can now produce convincing emails, falsify Bills of Lading (BOLs), and even alter official documents with minimal effort.

Types of Strategic Theft 

To better understand the scope, here are real-world examples of impersonation at different stages of a load’s lifecycle:

• Load Posting / Booking: Criminals impersonate carriers with stolen MC/DOT numbers or pose as brokers assigning loads to fraudulent carriers.
  
  
• Dispatch and Pre-Arrival: Fake dispatchers call warehouses to reroute freight, or false administrators submit falsified rate confirmations and insurance paperwork.
  
  
• Pickup: Drivers arrive with cloned trucks, swapped license plates, or fake IDs that match legitimate records.
  
  
• In-Transit: Thieves impersonate law enforcement to conduct fake roadside inspections or impersonate yard operators directing drivers to fraudulent drop sites.
  
  
• Delivery: Criminals act as consignees with fake dock staff, or produce falsified appointment confirmations that divert shipments.

Pilferage - The Old problem that won’t go away

So what about Pilferage? It still is the most common cargo theft event type, representing about 47% of events in 2024. Pilferage remains in large part straight theft, taking advantage of badly organized yards and docks to opportunistically grab commodities in trailers and in the warehouses. Yet, just like most other theft types, Pilferage thieves are starting to use strategic theft techniques. A recent example we came across was a contracted lane that was systematically rerouted by a fake dispatcher to another warehouse to steal some pallets before delivering to the real warehouse. 

Although pilferage incidents tend to be lower in value, their frequency and the difficulty of detection mean they add up to significant long-term losses.

Why Cargo Theft Hurts Beyond the Stolen Load

Cargo theft does more than create a one-time financial loss. It affects businesses in ways that ripple through operations:

Insurance Costs 

When theft climbs, so do premiums. Carriers are seeing average hikes of 8–12% [link], with transportation ranking among the hardest-hit sectors in early 2025 [link]. Worse, many policies don’t even cover strategic theft, leaving companies exposed despite paying more.

Reputation

News of a stolen load travels fast, and once it does, trust is hard to rebuild. Partners don’t want to risk their freight or reputation with a company perceived as vulnerable. Even worse, when your customers feel the impact. Missed deliveries, empty shelves, delayed orders. It turns into negative reviews, churn, and lost revenue.

Operational Drag

Beyond the financial hit, theft creates headaches: disrupted inventory, delayed orders, teams tied up with investigations, and unreported losses that quietly erode margins. The hidden costs can be as painful as the theft itself.

In the Next Blog Post...

We will discuss how shippers and warehouses can strengthen their defenses against theft. Considering specifically, how Opendock can play a major role in defending against the two core issues uncovered in this blog: The new theft, Strategic theft, and the most common one, Pilferage.