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As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast
Our model predicts that spot rates will decrease by 7% MoM in April. Our average rates dropped 10% MoM in February and 12% MoM in March. The cumulative losses led rates back to 2024 levels in March (0% YoY gain).
- We expect to see a reversal of this downward trend starting in May, driven by seasonal demand associated with the produce season. Early rate readings suggest that rates are already rising in the Southeast, particularly in the key produce states of Florida and Georgia. In addition, this positive momentum is expected to extend to the Southwest by mid-April, with rates rising in California.
- Despite ongoing concerns about demand destruction brought by the recent tariff policy changes, its overall impact on freight volumes in the first half of 2025 will be modest because of:
- Consumer demand rebound: The weakness in consumer demand in January was exceptional. February retail sales data indicated a rebound, with retail sales up 0.5% MoM. Additionally, March payroll gains in consumer-facing sectors, such as retail and leisure, signal a continued positive trend in consumer spending.
- Inventory restocking: Inventory levels among manufacturers and wholesalers are historically low, and inventory restocking will be needed in the first half of 2025.
- Halted private fleet expansion plans: Tariffs are increasing the cost of new trucks and causing supply chain disruptions, leading shippers to delay planned private fleet expansions for 2025. As a result, we expect continued reliance on independent carriers and the spot market in this uncertain scenario.
