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As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast
Our model predicts that spot rates will increase by about 4.3% from November to December.
- Prices are expected to continue to rise in December '24 and January '25, then decline through February '25 before rebounding in June '25, driven by increased demand for the produce season.
- However, two potential disruptors could alter our expected rate trajectory in Q1 2025:
- Stronger-than-usual storm activity: According to the latest NWS report, we could see more snowstorms this winter than in 2024, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions;
- Another ILA strike in January: ILA temporarily suspended their October strike until January 15, 2025, so there is a chance they could strike again and shut down East Coast US ports.
Loadsmart rate through 2024 - A year of modest gains
- Rate increases consistently outpaced typical seasonal trends, particularly through the first half of 2024, leading to YoY nominal gains.
- However, an upcycle hasn't taken shape, as the gains have become modest in the second half of 2024.
- In inflation-adjusted terms, some months showed no real growth at all.
- For instance, while nominal rates have risen by 2.5% YoY in November, real rate growth remains flat when adjusted for inflation.
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Please reach out to Stella Carneiro (stella.carneiro@loadsmart.com) with any questions, suggestions, thoughts, etc.