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As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast
Our model forecasts that spot rates will remain steady throughout February, followed by a typical quiet-season cooling-off period in the the first half of 2025.
- December and January spot rates increased roughly 15% YoY, driven by strong manufacturing and retail demand.
- Loadsmart’s forecasting model suggests that macro trends and ongoing carrier exits will maintain strong momentum for truck rates throughout the year - with YoY rates gains typical despite seasonal slowdowns - but we acknowledge that the risks of this new trade policy are currently not fully captured by our model.
- Recent data signals that we may be on the verge of a new manufacturing cycle. January's PMI readings showed expansion for the first time after 26 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders firming and production turning positive. Retail demand has also increased YoY, but the new tariff policy on imported goods could pose a threat to both sectors.
- While trucking is less directly exposed to tariffs than rail and intermodal, which rely heavily on imports, higher inflation poses a risk to TL demand. It can dampen consumer demand and raise input costs for manufacturers, potentially hindering the start of a new cycle.
