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As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast
Our model predicts that spot rates will decrease by 1.6% MoM in March, driven by seasonal trends.
- Recent data suggest that Q4 2024 price gains were more likely driven by weather-related disruptions and seasonality than a fundamental market shift.
- But despite these MoM fluctuations, the market is expected to remain inflationary YoY for the entire year. We forecast incremental price gains of around 7% YoY in most months - slightly lower than in 2024 when price gains were around 10% YoY.
- Macro data from early 2025 suggest that demand may be losing momentum. Durable goods spending showed signs of slowing in early 2025; housing activity is expected to remain modest throughout 2025 due to persistently elevated mortgage rates; and while manufacturing activity has recently begun to expand, after more than two years of contraction, new import tariffs threaten this tentative recovery.
- Nonetheless, continued reductions in active carriers may help sustain the inflationary market (in YoY terms) despite these headwinds.
