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In this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the full truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view of the state of the freight market.
As usual, in this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update/analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s top 30 spot rate forecast
Our model predicts that spot rates will decline about 1% from October to November before rebounding in December and January
- The December reversal will be driven by seasonal factors, particularly the surge in demand surrounding Black Friday and Christmas. We predict a 6% MoM rate increase from November to December, consistent with our historical trends
- This seasonal spike will be short-lived, as macroeconomic indicators suggest no significant demand catalysts until the first half of 2025
- Our baseline forecast assumes slowing consumption growth in upcoming quarters, leading to stabilized freight demand and rate performance. Rates are expected to decline through February before rebounding in June, driven by increased demand for the produce season
- However, two potential disruptors could alter our expected rate trajectory in Q1 2025:
- Stronger-than-usual storm activity: According to the latest NWS report, we could see more snowstorms this winter than in 2024, particularly in the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions;
- Another ILA strike in January: ILA temporarily suspended their October strike till January 15, 2025, so there is a chance they could strike again and shut down East Coast US ports
Macroeconomic indicators we are monitoring
Consumer Expenditures
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.5% in October, its lowest level in 20 years, signaling a faster contraction in the U.S. manufacturing sector. The new orders index rose slightly to 47.1% from 46.1% but remained in contraction territory.
According to the report, companies are increasingly hesitant to commit to increasing inventories amid inflation concerns. Only three manufacturing industries reported growth in new orders in October: Apparel, Leather & Allied, Food, Beverage & Tobacco, and Computer & Electronic.
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Please reach out to Stella Carneiro (stella.carneiro@loadsmart.com) with any questions, suggestions, thoughts, etc.