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This Monthly Market Update provides (a) a quick snapshot of the truckload market and (b) an economic outlook to frame what’s ahead for freight.
We hope you enjoy! #movemorewithless
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s Top 30 Spot Rate Forecast
DRV spot rates increased by 0.6% from the previous month, an upside surprise vs. our -1.2% MoM forecast. The model currently indicates a modest 0.3% MoM increase for October 2025, driven by resilient consumption and early-holiday retail deals. However, the overall trend remains weak, with rates expected to drop YoY through the 1Q2026, with November 2025 as the only month with positive YoY growth - a base‑effects story.
- Holiday season spending should soften. According to a survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF), consumers intend to allocate 1.3% less of their budgets to shopping this year compared to last year. Deloitte’s 2025 holiday survey shows the same trend, projecting an even sharper 10% YoY decline in planned holiday budgets. Therefore, we expect DRV demand and rates to decline YoY in 4Q but promotions could pull freight forward into late October/early November despite softer totals.
- In 2026, we anticipate that the truckload market will gradually move toward a supply-demand balance rather than rebound - consistent with the latest outlook from Morgan Stanley's Freight Pulse, which calls for a "slow grind toward equilibrium”. Our model projects a modest upcycle of less than 0.5% YoY growth in rates, as demand gradually strengthens through inventory restocking, clearer tariff guidance, and continued Fed easing. Capacity exits continue but slow; contract rates should lag spot by 2–3 quarters.
