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In this Monthly Market Update, we will (a) provide a brief update and analysis of the truckload market and (b) present a compelling economic analysis to provide a macroeconomic view on the state of the freight market.
We hope you enjoy! #movemorewithless
Full Truckload Market Overview
Loadsmart’s Top 30 Spot Rate Forecast
Our DRV Spot rates rose 7.4% MoM, overshooting our 2.6% projection. Our model now forecasts a -1.2% MoM rate change in September 2025. Here are some other key points to be aware of:
- Rates spiked as strong back-to-school retail demand coincided with a shortage of truckloads—the short week after Labor Day helped reduce capacity.
- However, we are not using August's retail performance as a prelude to the holidays. As imports slow, the port-to-hub dry van lanes, currently responsible for the rate hike, should start to cool, easing demand and spot rates in October through November.
- According to NRF’s Global Port Tracker, imports are expected to decrease by ~19–21% YoY from September to December, suggesting a slowdown in port-origin dry-van flows.
- Tariff-driven price pressures will keep inflation elevated and erode real purchasing power, while slowing nominal labor-income growth should also help weaken consumer demand.
- Looking ahead to the 1Q26, we anticipate that weather, rather than fundamentals, will drive the next monthly rate increase in December 2025 and January 2026. This increase will be temporary and will begin to ease in February 2026, as the tariff shock and front-loading distortions will have disappeared by then. We continue to expect a soft 1H2026, followed by a gradual improvement later in the year.
